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Kalshi Crypto Momentum Trader\r

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This is a template. \r The default signal uses static 7d/30d momentum parameters -- remix it with live price API feeds, multiple timeframes, or volume-weighted momentum. \r The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.\r \r

Strategy Overview\r

\r Crypto markets on Kalshi price year-end targets. Price momentum (7d/30d trends) is a strong predictor of whether targets will be reached. This skill extrapolates recent price trends to compute probability that each target is hit by year-end.\r \r

Signal Logic\r

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Momentum Trend Model\r

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1. Compute 7-day and 30-day price change ratios for BTC/ETH\r
2. Extrapolate current trend to year-end using exponential projection\r
3. Compute probability of reaching each price target under trend assumption\r
4. Compare model probability to Kalshi market price\r
5. Trade when |model - market| >= entry_edge\r \r

Remix Ideas\r

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• Live price API: CoinGecko/Binance for real-time trend computation\r
• Multiple timeframe ensemble: 1d, 7d, 30d, 90d momentum signals\r
• Volume-weighted momentum: Higher conviction when volume confirms\r
• Mean-reversion overlay: Dampen extreme trend signals\r \r

Risk Parameters\r

\r | Parameter | Default | Notes |\r |-----------|---------|-------|\r | Entry edge | 10% | Min model-vs-market divergence to trade |\r | Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |\r | Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |\r | Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |\r | Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |\r | Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |\r \r

Installation & Setup\r

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clawhub install kalshi-crypto-momentum-trader\r
```\r
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Requires: `SIMMER_API_KEY` and `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` environment variables.\r
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## Cron Schedule\r
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Cron is set to `null` -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.\r
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## Safety & Execution Mode\r
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**The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when `--live` is passed explicitly.**\r
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| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |\r
|----------|------|----------------|\r
| `python trader.py` | Dry run | None |\r
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |\r
| `python trader.py --live` | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |\r
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The automaton cron is set to `null` -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. `autostart: false` means it won't start automatically on install.\r
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## Required Credentials\r
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| Variable | Required | Notes |\r
|----------|----------|-------|\r
| `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |\r
| `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |\r
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## Tunables (Risk Parameters)\r
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| Variable | Default | Purpose |\r
|----------|---------|---------|\r
| `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_ENTRY_EDGE` | `0.10` | Min divergence to trigger trade |\r
| `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_EXIT_THRESHOLD` | `0.45` | Sell position when price reaches this level |\r
| `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MAX_POSITION_USD` | `5.00` | Max USDC per trade |\r
| `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN` | `3` | Max trades per execution cycle |\r
| `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_SLIPPAGE_MAX` | `0.15` | Max slippage before skipping |\r
| `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MIN_LIQUIDITY` | `0` | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |\r
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## Dependency\r
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`simmer-sdk` is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.\r
- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/\r
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk\r
- Publisher: [email protected]\r
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Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.\r