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Polymarket Macro Crypto Geopolitics Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
201
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0
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0
Active Installs
4
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Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-macro-crypto-geopolitics-trader
Description
Trades the lag between geopolitical escalation markets and crypto price threshold markets on Polymarket. When Iran military action probability rises, BTC thr...
Usage Guidance
This package appears to implement the described Polymarket trading strategy and only needs one credential (SIMMER_API_KEY) to place trades, and it defaults to paper trading — that is coherent. However: (1) the registry metadata you were shown is inconsistent with the shipped files: the skill actually requires SIMMER_API_KEY and lists a pip dependency ('simmer-sdk'), but the top-level summary claimed no env vars and no install. Treat that mismatch as a red flag: confirm which metadata source your platform will use at install/run time. (2) Only provide SIMMER_API_KEY if you trust the Simmer service and the author; prefer giving a key with limited permissions and low funds. (3) Keep default usage in paper mode (no --live) until you audit the simmer-sdk package and read trader.py fully (verify there are no hidden endpoints or token exfiltration). (4) Verify what apply_skill_config() does in your environment, since the code re-reads environment variables after calling it (the Simmer runtime could inject configuration). (5) If you plan to run live, rotate keys afterwards and limit trade size via the tunables. If you want higher assurance, ask the author to reconcile the registry metadata with the shipped files or run the code in an isolated environment and review the simmer-sdk package source before providing credentials.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-macro-crypto-geopolitics-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a legitimate trading bot designed to exploit price lags between geopolitical events and crypto markets on Polymarket using the simmer-sdk. The code in trader.py strictly follows the strategy described in SKILL.md, implements safety features like a default paper-trading mode (venue='sim'), and lacks any indicators of data exfiltration, obfuscation, or unauthorized execution.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill name, SKILL.md, clawhub.json, and trader.py all describe a Polymarket trading strategy and that behavior aligns with the declared pip dependency (simmer-sdk) and the single credential SIMMER_API_KEY used to authenticate trades. However, the registry summary provided at the top of the report (Requirements: 'Required env vars: none', 'Primary credential: none', 'Install specifications: No install spec — instruction-only skill') contradicts the actual files (SKILL.md and clawhub.json both require SIMMER_API_KEY and clawhub.json lists 'simmer-sdk' as a pip requirement). That metadata mismatch is suspicious because it could mislead automated gating systems or users about the credential and install requirements.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md instructs the agent to discover markets, compute geo_heat and crypto_optimism, detect divergence, and trade on Polymarket; trader.py implements those steps and defaults to paper trading unless run with an explicit --live flag. The instructions do not ask the agent to read unrelated files or pump data to unexpected external endpoints beyond the Simmer SDK/venue. All runtime actions described are within the stated trading purpose.
Install Mechanism
There is no external arbitrary download; the package declares a pip dependency on 'simmer-sdk' in clawhub.json, which is a standard package-install mechanism. However, the top-level summary said 'No install spec — instruction-only skill' while clawhub.json contains a pip requirement; this inconsistency should be resolved. Relying on a pip package is normal but you should verify the simmer-sdk package's provenance before installing.
Credentials
Functionally the skill only requires one credential, SIMMER_API_KEY, which is appropriate for placing trades via the Simmer client. The concern is that the registry metadata omitted this required credential, so a user might not realize they're granting a high-value trading API key. The code also re-reads environment variables after calling _client.apply_skill_config(), which means runtime configuration may be updated by the Simmer runtime — you should understand what apply_skill_config does in your environment.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill does not request always:true, autostart is false, and the automaton/entrypoint is declared but will not run live automatically. disable-model-invocation is false (normal). The skill does not appear to modify other skills' configuration; its persistence and privilege requests are proportional to its function.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-macro-crypto-geopolitics-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-macro-crypto-geopolitics-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
Crypto-Geopolitics Lag Trader skill initial release:
- Detects divergence between Polymarket geopolitical escalation markets and crypto price threshold markets.
- Computes real-time "geo_heat" and "crypto_optimism" scores to identify trading opportunities due to lagged market responses.
- Trades crypto threshold markets when their prices haven't yet reflected sharp geopolitical changes, with automated sizing and safeguards.
- Offers advanced tunables for risk management and control through Simmer UI.
- Defaults to paper trading mode; can be enabled for live execution with explicit flag.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Macro Crypto Geopolitics Trader?
Trades the lag between geopolitical escalation markets and crypto price threshold markets on Polymarket. When Iran military action probability rises, BTC thr... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 201 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Macro Crypto Geopolitics Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-macro-crypto-geopolitics-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Macro Crypto Geopolitics Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Macro Crypto Geopolitics Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Macro Crypto Geopolitics Trader support?
Polymarket Macro Crypto Geopolitics Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Macro Crypto Geopolitics Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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