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Polymarket Ladder F1 Championship Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
171
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
4
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-ladder-f1-championship-trader
Description
Trades distribution-sum violations in F1 championship winner markets on Polymarket. Driver winner probabilities form a distribution that must sum to ~100% —...
Usage Guidance
Before installing: (1) Fix the manifest mismatch — the top-level listing incorrectly omits required environment variables and install deps; treat that as a red flag until clarified. (2) This skill requires a SIMMER_API_KEY — only supply an API key with minimal necessary permissions (avoid keys that allow withdrawals or broad account control). (3) The skill can place real trades when run with --live; run in default paper/sim mode first to validate behavior. (4) The package depends on simmer-sdk via pip — review that library's provenance and source. (5) Inspect the code (trader.py) yourself or have it audited if you will attach real funds. If you are comfortable with those checks and trust the owner, the functionality itself is coherent with its purpose; otherwise do not provide live credentials or run with --live.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-ladder-f1-championship-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill implements a legitimate trading strategy for Polymarket F1 championship markets based on probability distribution arbitrage. The code in `trader.py` correctly implements the logic described in `SKILL.md`, utilizing the `simmer-sdk` for market discovery and execution. It includes safety features such as a default paper-trading mode (`venue='sim'`), slippage checks, and configurable risk parameters in `clawhub.json`. No indicators of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection were found.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill's name and description describe a Polymarket F1 distribution-arbitrage trader; the code (trader.py) uses a SimmerClient and the clawhub.json declares a SIMMER_API_KEY and pip dependency on simmer-sdk — these are coherent with the stated purpose. However, the top-level registry listing incorrectly reported "Required env vars: none" and "No install spec" while the package actually requires SIMMER_API_KEY and lists simmer-sdk as a pip dependency. That metadata mismatch is an incoherence that should be resolved.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py instruct only to discover markets, compute distribution-sum violations, and place trades via simmer-sdk. The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim") and requires an explicit --live flag to place real trades. The instructions and code do not reference unrelated system files, unexpected endpoints, or arbitrary data exfiltration.
Install Mechanism
There is no external arbitrary-download installer; dependencies are declared as pip: simmer-sdk in clawhub.json (typical). But the top-level summary said "No install spec — instruction-only", which contradicts clawhub.json. Installing pip packages is moderate risk compared to no install; verify the provenance of simmer-sdk on PyPI and ensure you trust it.
Credentials
The code requires SIMMER_API_KEY (accessed via os.environ["SIMMER_API_KEY"]) and reads several SIMMER_* tunables (MAX_POSITION, MIN_TRADE, etc.), which are declared as tunables in clawhub.json. Requiring an API key for the trading SDK is expected. The inconsistency is that the registry metadata earlier reported no required env vars — this is misleading and should be corrected. Confirm the required key's scope and permissions before providing it.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is not marked always:true and autostart is false. automaton.managed is true (entrypoint trader.py), which means the skill can be run by the platform when invoked but it does not force inclusion in all agent runs. The skill does not request modification of other skills or system-wide settings.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-ladder-f1-championship-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-ladder-f1-championship-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
Initial release: exploits distribution-sum violations in F1 championship winner markets on Polymarket for structural arbitrage.
- Discovers and groups F1 championship driver markets, calculating if winner probabilities deviate significantly from a 100% total.
- Trades mispricings by buying NO on overpriced drivers (when sum > 105%) or YES on underpriced drivers (when sum < 95%).
- Features conviction-based sizing that scales trade size with the magnitude of the distribution violation.
- Fully configurable risk and filter parameters via Simmer UI; defaults to paper trading for safety.
- No external APIs needed beyond simmer-sdk; template includes remix/extension ideas for advanced users.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Ladder F1 Championship Trader?
Trades distribution-sum violations in F1 championship winner markets on Polymarket. Driver winner probabilities form a distribution that must sum to ~100% —... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 171 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Ladder F1 Championship Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-ladder-f1-championship-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Ladder F1 Championship Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Ladder F1 Championship Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Ladder F1 Championship Trader support?
Polymarket Ladder F1 Championship Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Ladder F1 Championship Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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