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Polymarket Geopolitics Sentiment Reversal Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
188
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
4
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-geopolitics-sentiment-reversal-trader
Description
Trades mean reversion on geopolitical markets pushed to probability extremes by breaking news. Markets at >92% or <8% with long time horizons systematically...
Usage Guidance
Do not install or provide credentials until you verify the source. Key issues: (1) SKILL.md claims 'no external API required' but the code needs SIMMER_API_KEY and the simmer-sdk — metadata at the top omitted this env var; (2) the skill can execute trades via the Simmer API (paper mode by default, but real trades are possible with --live). Before using: confirm who publishes this skill and get a homepage/repo; review the simmer-sdk package source and ensure it is trustworthy; if you must provide SIMMER_API_KEY, create a limited-scope/test key (paper-only if available) and never expose a production key with full fund access until you've audited the integration; be cautious about allowing autonomous invocation to run live trades — require manual review/explicit opt-in for live mode.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-geopolitics-sentiment-reversal-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill implements a mean-reversion trading strategy for geopolitical prediction markets using the simmer-sdk. It includes logic for market discovery, signal calculation based on probability extremes and time horizons, and execution safeguards. The code in trader.py is well-structured, lacks any signs of malicious behavior (such as data exfiltration or unauthorized execution), and defaults to a safe simulation mode.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The SKILL.md repeatedly states the default signal is price-based and 'no external API required', but the code and clawhub.json depend on a Simmer integration (simmer-sdk) and require SIMMER_API_KEY to operate. Requesting an API key and SDK is proportionate for a trading skill, but it contradicts the SKILL.md claim and the top-level registry metadata (which listed no required env vars).
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md describes market discovery, filtering and trade execution but labels the template as 'no external API required' while the runtime instructions (the agent's actual behavior) use SimmerClient to discover markets and execute trades. The SKILL.md also leaves trading 'alpha' to the agent (open-ended decision-making), which gives the agent broad discretion in signal selection. The runtime code references only the SIMMER_* tunables and does not access other unrelated system files, but the mismatch between prose and code is misleading.
Install Mechanism
No external download URLs; clawhub.json lists a pip dependency 'simmer-sdk'. Using a PyPI package is a typical install path for this functionality. This is a moderate-risk but expected install mechanism for a trading integration—verify the simmer-sdk package provenance before installing.
Credentials
The code requires a single credential, SIMMER_API_KEY, which is appropriate for a trading integration. However, the registry metadata omitted this required env var while clawhub.json correctly declares SIMMER_API_KEY. That inconsistency is risky: users may not realize they must supply a credential, and metadata does not match the actual secrets requested. No other unrelated credentials are requested.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is not always:true and autostart is false. The automaton entrypoint is trader.py (managed), and agent autonomous invocation is allowed by platform defaults. This is expected for an agent-invocable trading skill—note that autonomous invocation plus a live API key could place real trades if --live is used or the runtime toggles live operation.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-geopolitics-sentiment-reversal-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-geopolitics-sentiment-reversal-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
Initial release of Geopolitics Sentiment Reversal Trader.
Key features:
- Automatically detects and trades mean reversion on geopolitical prediction markets at probability extremes (>92% or <8%) following breaking news.
- Uses a staleness factor based on days to resolution to size trades for maximal statistical edge.
- Built-in safeguards: paper/simulation mode is default, no live trades without explicit confirmation.
- Fully parameterized for risk management, market filtering, and customization via Simmer UI.
- Clear logic and rationale for overreaction detection rooted in behavioral finance research.
- Simple integration: handles market discovery, filtering, and execution; user supplies only credentials and optional custom logic.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Geopolitics Sentiment Reversal Trader?
Trades mean reversion on geopolitical markets pushed to probability extremes by breaking news. Markets at >92% or <8% with long time horizons systematically... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 188 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Geopolitics Sentiment Reversal Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-geopolitics-sentiment-reversal-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Geopolitics Sentiment Reversal Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Geopolitics Sentiment Reversal Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Geopolitics Sentiment Reversal Trader support?
Polymarket Geopolitics Sentiment Reversal Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Geopolitics Sentiment Reversal Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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