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Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-multi-source-estimator
Description
Trade prediction markets using LLM probability estimation enriched with 10+ real-time data sources (news, economic data, sports odds, political polling, and...
Usage Guidance
This skill looks coherent for its purpose, but it is a live-capable trading bot and will transmit market questions + gathered public context to whichever LLM endpoint you configure. Before installing: (1) review the full multi_source_estimator.py (the provided snippet was truncated) to confirm no unexpected I/O or hidden endpoints; (2) run in dry-run/sim mode initially and test locally; (3) use paper/sim TRADING_VENUE and avoid setting --live until you’re confident; (4) limit the SIMMER_API_KEY to the minimum permissions possible and consider using a test key; (5) set LLM_API_URL to a provider you trust (self-hosted if privacy is a concern); (6) only provide optional data-source API keys you trust and rotate keys after testing; (7) run the code in an isolated environment and monitor outbound traffic/logs. If you want higher confidence, provide the complete (untruncated) source for review or run a static audit on the full file.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-multi-source-estimator
Version: 1.1.4
The skill is a legitimate prediction market trading bot that integrates over 10 real-time data sources (including FRED, GDELT, and Finnhub) to inform LLM-based probability estimates. The code in multi_source_estimator.py is well-structured, lacks obfuscation, and uses the simmer-sdk as intended for trading without any evidence of credential theft, unauthorized data exfiltration, or malicious prompt injection.
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
Name/description, SKILL.md, clawhub.json, and the Python code align: a prediction-market trading estimator that needs a trading API key (SIMMER_API_KEY) and an LLM key (LLM_API_KEY). Optional API keys correspond to the listed data sources. Required pip packages (simmer-sdk, requests) are appropriate for the functionality.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md instructs the agent to fetch many external public data sources, build context, call an LLM, compare estimates to market prices, and trade via Simmer. This matches the code you shipped. Caveats: the skill makes outbound HTTP requests to data APIs and to whatever LLM endpoint you configure (default OpenRouter). That means market questions + gathered public context will be transmitted off-host to the chosen LLM provider. The SKILL.md states only public context is sent, but you should verify the full source (the file was truncated in the provided snippet) to confirm no accidental inclusion of other environment values or secrets in LLM payloads.
Install Mechanism
No install script is included; the registry metadata lists pip dependencies (simmer-sdk, requests). Using pip is normal here, but pip-installed packages run arbitrary Python code on install—standard risk. There are no downloads from unknown URLs or archive extracts declared.
Credentials
Only two required env vars are declared (SIMMER_API_KEY and LLM_API_KEY), which is proportionate for a trading bot that calls an external LLM. Several optional API keys for public-data providers are sensible. Reminder: both required vars are sensitive—SIMMER_API_KEY grants ability to place trades via the Simmer SDK, and LLM_API_KEY allows sending data to an external model. Ensure the SIMMER_API_KEY scope/permissions are restricted and use paper mode for testing.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is an automaton scheduled every 5 minutes (clawhub.json cron and SKILL.md). always:false (default) so it is not force-included in every agent, but managed scheduling + autonomous invocation means it can run and place trades without manual steps if configured with live credentials. This is expected for a trading bot, but you should be deliberate about enabling --live and where the skill runs.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-multi-source-estimator - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-multi-source-estimator - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v1.1.4
Fix requires.env: only list mandatory vars, optional vars documented in SKILL.md only
v1.1.3
Declare all env vars in manifest, sync version, add scheduling/security docs
v1.1.2
Fix manifest/code consistency: sync versions, declare all env vars, set managed:true, type:automaton
v1.1.1
Fix Market dataclass access, SimmerClient api_key, venue default to sim, MiMo LLM
v1.1.0
- Reduced number of RSS news feeds from 20 to 10 for faster context fetching.
- Minor documentation updates for clarity on data sources.
- No changes to API or trading behavior.
v1.0.0
Multi-Source LLM Estimator skill v1.0.0:
Trade on Polymarket using LLM probability estimates enriched with 10+ real-time data sources.
- Fetches live context for each market from news, polling, sports odds, financial, legislative, and other APIs.
- Estimates event probabilities using an LLM prompt constructed from the data.
- Trades automatically when LLM-derived probabilities significantly diverge from market prices.
- Cross-checks prices on Manifold and Kalshi for arbitrage opportunities.
- Highly customizable: add data sources, swap LLM providers, tune thresholds, and edit prompting.
- Includes clear setup instructions and API key usage guidance.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Multi Source Estimator?
Trade prediction markets using LLM probability estimation enriched with 10+ real-time data sources (news, economic data, sports odds, political polling, and... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 157 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Multi Source Estimator?
Run "/install polymarket-multi-source-estimator" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Multi Source Estimator free?
Yes, Polymarket Multi Source Estimator is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Multi Source Estimator support?
Polymarket Multi Source Estimator is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Multi Source Estimator?
It is built and maintained by Mibayy (@mibayy); the current version is v1.1.4.
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