\r \r

Kalshi Fed Temporal Monotonicity Trader\r

\r

This is a template.\r The default signal detects temporal monotonicity violations in Fed rate markets -- remix it with live yield curve data, Fed funds futures, or options-implied probabilities.\r The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.\r \r

Strategy Overview\r

\r Fed rate cut/hike markets across different meeting dates must satisfy temporal monotonicity: the probability of a cut "by June" must be >= the probability of a cut "by April", since June includes April. When this invariant is violated, we have a pure structural arbitrage.\r \r Key advantages:\r

• Mathematical certainty -- this is a logical invariant, not a statistical edge\r
• No model risk -- the relationship P(by later) >= P(by earlier) is always true\r
• Self-correcting -- violations are temporary mispricings that must converge\r \r

Signal Logic\r

\r

Temporal Monotonicity\r

\r

1. Scan all Fed rate cut/hike markets on Kalshi\r
2. Group by year and type (cut vs hike)\r
3. Sort chronologically by FOMC meeting date\r
4. Compare: if P(cut by April) > P(cut by June) + threshold, violation detected\r
5. Buy YES on the later (underpriced) date market\r \r

Conviction-Based Sizing\r

\r

• conviction = min(violation_size / violation_threshold, 2.0) / 2.0\r
• size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)\r
• Larger violations = larger positions, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD\r \r

Risk Parameters\r

\r | Parameter | Default | Notes |\r |-----------|---------|-------|\r | Violation threshold | 3% | Min difference to trigger trade |\r | Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |\r | Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |\r | Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |\r | Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |\r | Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |\r \r

Installation & Setup\r

\r

clawhub install kalshi-fed-temporal-mono-trader\r
```\r
\r
Requires: `SIMMER_API_KEY` and `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` environment variables.\r
\r
## Cron Schedule\r
\r
Cron is set to `null` -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.\r
\r
## Safety & Execution Mode\r
\r
**The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when `--live` is passed explicitly.**\r
\r
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |\r
|----------|------|----------------|\r
| `python trader.py` | Dry run | None |\r
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |\r
| `python trader.py --live` | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |\r
\r
## Required Credentials\r
\r
| Variable | Required | Notes |\r
|----------|----------|-------|\r
| `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |\r
| `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |\r
\r
## Tunables (Risk Parameters)\r
\r
| Variable | Default | Purpose |\r
|----------|---------|---------|\r
| `SIMMER_FED_TEMP_VIOLATION_THRESHOLD` | `0.03` | Min violation size to trigger trade |\r
| `SIMMER_FED_TEMP_EXIT_THRESHOLD` | `0.45` | Sell position when price reaches this level |\r
| `SIMMER_FED_TEMP_MAX_POSITION_USD` | `5.00` | Max USDC per trade |\r
| `SIMMER_FED_TEMP_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN` | `3` | Max trades per execution cycle |\r
| `SIMMER_FED_TEMP_SLIPPAGE_MAX` | `0.15` | Max slippage before skipping trade |\r
| `SIMMER_FED_TEMP_MIN_LIQUIDITY` | `0` | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |\r
\r
## Dependency\r
\r
`simmer-sdk` is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.\r
- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/\r
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk\r
- Publisher: [email protected]\r
\r
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.\r