\r \r

Kalshi Crypto Monotonicity Trader\r

\r

This is a template. \r The default signal enforces monotonicity on crypto price-level bins -- remix it with real-time order book data, implied volatility surfaces, or cross-exchange price feeds. \r The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.\r \r

Strategy Overview\r

\r Crypto price-level markets on Kalshi price "Will BTC be above $X?" for various thresholds. By definition, P(BTC > $110k) >= P(BTC > $120k) because the first event subsumes the second. When the market violates this, we capture the arbitrage by buying the underpriced contract and selling the overpriced one.\r \r Key advantages:\r

• Pure math arbitrage -- no model or opinion needed, just logical consistency\r
• Works for BTC and ETH -- any asset with multiple price-level markets\r
• Self-correcting -- violations close quickly, so early detection matters\r \r

Signal Logic\r

\r

Monotonicity Check\r

\r

1. Fetch all crypto price-level markets (BTC above $X, ETH above $Y)\r
2. Group by asset, sort by price level ascending\r
3. Verify P(above lower level) >= P(above higher level) for all pairs\r
4. When violation exceeds violation_threshold, generate paired trades\r \r

Example (with defaults)\r

\r | Market | Level | Market P | Expected | Violation |\r |--------|-------|----------|----------|-----------|\r | BTC > $100k | $100,000 | 45% | >= 35% | -- |\r | BTC > $110k | $110,000 | 35% | >= 20% | -- |\r | BTC > $120k | $120,000 | 38% | \x3C= 35% | 3% |\r \r In the last row, P(>$120k) = 38% > P(>$110k) = 35%, violating monotonicity by 3%.\r \r

Remix Ideas\r

\r

• Order book depth: Weight violations by available liquidity at each level\r
• Implied vol surface: Use violation patterns to infer mispriced implied volatility\r
• Cross-exchange arb: Compare Kalshi levels to Deribit options strikes\r \r

Risk Parameters\r

\r | Parameter | Default | Notes |\r |-----------|---------|-------|\r | Violation threshold | 3% | Min probability gap to trigger trade |\r | Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |\r | Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |\r | Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |\r | Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |\r | Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |\r \r

Installation & Setup\r

\r

clawhub install kalshi-crypto-monotonicity-trader\r
```\r
\r
Requires: `SIMMER_API_KEY` and `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` environment variables.\r
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## Cron Schedule\r
\r
Cron is set to `null` -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.\r
\r
## Safety & Execution Mode\r
\r
**The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when `--live` is passed explicitly.**\r
\r
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |\r
|----------|------|----------------|\r
| `python trader.py` | Dry run | None |\r
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |\r
| `python trader.py --live` | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |\r
\r
The automaton cron is set to `null` -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. `autostart: false` means it won't start automatically on install.\r
\r
## Required Credentials\r
\r
| Variable | Required | Notes |\r
|----------|----------|-------|\r
| `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |\r
| `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |\r
\r
## Tunables (Risk Parameters)\r
\r
All risk parameters are declared in `clawhub.json` as `tunables` and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.\r
\r
| Variable | Default | Purpose |\r
|----------|---------|---------|\r
| `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_VIOLATION_THRESHOLD` | `0.03` | Min probability gap between adjacent levels to trigger trade |\r
| `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_EXIT_THRESHOLD` | `0.45` | Sell position when price reaches this level |\r
| `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MAX_POSITION_USD` | `5.00` | Max USDC per trade |\r
| `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN` | `3` | Max trades per execution cycle |\r
| `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_SLIPPAGE_MAX` | `0.15` | Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%) |\r
| `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MIN_LIQUIDITY` | `0` | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |\r
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## Dependency\r
\r
`simmer-sdk` is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.\r
- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/\r
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk\r
- Publisher: [email protected]\r
\r
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.\r